Russia’s war against Ukraine showed just how costly and risky fossil fuel dependence can be. Now the Israeli-American war against Iran is pushing oil prices up all over again. Why are we still failing to learn the lesson? Renewable energy means more sovereignty, more security and lower costs — if the energy transition is finally pursued with the consistency and social fairness it demands.

There are more and more of them now: on the rooftops of private homes, on factories, on supermarket buildings, on balconies. Solar panels. And they tell a story about people who have made up their minds: No more waiting. We’ll do it ourselves.

And we will no longer leave control over our wallets to autocrats, dictators and political leaders who can send oil and gas prices soaring through the chaos of global politics. As they are doing once again in the wake of the new violence in the Middle East.

In one sense, none of this is new. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Germany felt the shock most acutely in its boiler rooms and at the petrol pump: the cost of heating, electricity and fuel exploded.
Of course, Ukrainians have paid a far higher price: For four years now, they have been fighting for their lives and their independence against Russia’s brutal aggression.

And yet it was precisely this brutal power on Europe’s doorstep that we had previously made ourselves dependent on — and thus vulnerable to blackmail. In 2021, 51 per cent of the natural gas consumed in Germany — more than half — was still imported from Russia, even though Moscow had long since occupied Crimea.

“No despot can switch off the sun or the wind”
“No despot can switch off the sun or the wind” was the headline of an article published after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine by security experts from leading German and European think tanks. Their conclusion was clear: Countries like Germany that rely on imported fossil fuels expose themselves to an increasingly volatile geopolitical order — and, with it, to oil and gas prices that are neither predictable nor controllable. The decision to cling stubbornly to gas and oil came at a price then, and it still does now — for the security of our democracy no less than for our wallets.

And yet, just four years later, the pattern is repeating itself. Prices at German petrol stations are rising again. The dependency remains.

The war between the United States, Israel and Iran has by now spread across the wider Middle East — with countless deaths, unimaginable suffering and nearly 3.2 million displaced people in Iran who have lost their homes.

Fossil fuels: bloodstained, expensive, climate-damaging
Even if Germany is staying out of this war, two fundamental questions remain. The first: Do we really want to remain dependent on autocratic regimes — and, through our imports of fossil fuels, continue funding their undemocratic rule and even their wars?

And the second: Why is the shift to renewable energy still not being driven forward more decisively, even though it would make us more independent, more secure, cut costs and prevent further climate damage?

Delay in the energy transition means new dependencies
While Germany hesitates, other countries are setting records. China is far ahead in the expansion of renewable energies. But countries across South America, Africa and South-East Asia are also turning away from fossil fuels and embracing renewables — above all through affordable solar systems and electric cars from China. Pakistan is undergoing one of the fastest solar revolutions anywhere in the world: In just six years, the share of renewable energy in its electricity mix rose to 30 per cent. In Nepal, 76 per cent of newly registered cars are now electric.

This points to a clear pattern: Countries under the greatest pressure — from crises, sanctions or price shocks — tend to move the fastest.

The reverse is true as well: When Germany and other Western countries once again drag their feet on expanding renewables, they are accepting new dependencies in return. The slower we are, the more China’s lead grows, especially in technologies and raw materials.

China, too, is not a democracy. Do we really want to make ourselves dependent all over again — and once again vulnerable to blackmail?

Germany: short-sighted policy despite business warnings
The German government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz is currently rolling back the energy transition. Economy Minister Katherina Reiche’s grid package is slowing the expansion of solar power, while the so-called Building Modernisation Act (GMG) is delaying the shift to renewable heating sources, thereby locking in oil and gas heating systems for longer. Quite what is supposed to be modern about that is open to question.

Ironically, it is businesses and industry — traditionally the core constituency of the conservative parties CDU and CSU — that are now mobilising against Reiche’s act. By now, 3,837 companies have backed a business appeal against the federal government’s energy policy — including not only energy firms, but also law offices, advertising agencies, farms, pharmacies, bakeries and tourism businesses. Study after study also shows that the majority of people in Germany want climate action and expect climate targets to be met.

Talking Hope stands for a socially inclusive energy transition. Renewable energy is “freedom energy” — to borrow a phrase liberal politician Christian Lindner liked to invoke after the start of the war in Ukraine. Nothing about that has changed. But we are equally convinced of this: Renewable energy is also fairer energy, because over time it is significantly cheaper — whether for heating or for transport. All this is apart from the fact that it helps safeguard a sustainable future of our children and grandchildren.

The energy transition has a social imbalance
Freedom through energy is real — but it must mean freedom for everyone. And that means it has to be implemented in a socially just way.

Nonetheless, the energy transition continues to favour those already privileged: Around 40 per cent of public subsidies for renovation and heating replacement in private homes were captured by the wealthiest 25 per cent of households in 2024, according to a report from the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy on the distribution of public funding in the building sector. And according to an analysis by the Oeko-Institute, the government’s recent Building Modernisation Act (GMG) is pushing tenants – and with them lower-income households – into a new heating-cost trap, since the act cements dependence on gas, which is only getting more expensive.

The energy transition is no longer primarily a technological challenge. It is a social and democratic one. It will not succeed without broad social support, and that includes those less well-off and from socially disadvantaged backgrounds. Their participation is essential — and society as a whole will benefit from their engagement, the better-off no less than those with less. After all, do we not all need air to breathe?

The energy transition is too important to be left to the market or to authoritarian regimes — and too urgent to wait for governments that would rather backpedal.