This year’s COP30 in Belém reaffirmed one thing above all: The era of simply waiting for the next global climate deal is coming to an end. Instead, what is emerging is a new phase — one defined by plurilateral initiatives, by coalitions of willing governments and actors who are moving faster than the full UN process. That shift matters. But as the focus moves to these smaller-group initiatives, civil society and grassroots pressure become more — not less — important.

A step forward: The modest wins of COP30
COP30 delivered some meaningful gains: Against the backdrop of new geopolitical realities, it was already a win that the 195 country delegations managed to reach a joint declaration at all. Considering the fact that one in every four participants was a fossil fuel lobbyist, the nonetheless palpable presence of indigenous delegations was a win, too. Interestingly, some analysts considered the absence of the US – the world’s biggest polluter – as a “blessing in disguise”: It weakened the voice of the fossil fuel faction at the conference, Srinivas Krishnaswamy, CEO of the Indian Vasudha Climat Foundation, pointed out at a post-Belém briefing of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

There were concrete wins, too. The creation of the Belém Action Mechanism (BAM), which embeds the principle of a “just transition” in global climate governance, is a breakthrough. There are advances in recognising Indigenous rights and frontline communities. The launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), which seeks to mobilize 125 billion US dollars to protect standing tropical forests as carbon sinks is an important step.

The stand-stills: Where Belém failed
But on the other hand, COP30 did not deliver what is needed to contain and mitigate the climate crisis. Yes, the uptake of renewable energies is breathtaking. They are competitive, benefit local environments and decentralize energy structures, as Kira Vinke pointed out at the DGAP’s briefing. There is certainly no way back.

Yet, like previous summits, Belém also did not manage to agree on a binding roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. Adaptation finance remains inadequate. Many frontline communities are left with uncertainty rather than support. “In Belém, rich nations showed their unbearable hypocrisy: demanding ambition from those least responsible for the climate emergency, while systematically refusing to pay up their historical climate debt”, Fanny Petitbon of the international climate organization 350.org did not mince her words.

The new age of climate action: Plurilateralism, its promise – and its price
Yet something else is moving. Amid the lack of ambition at COP level, “plurilateralism” became the new buzzword of climate action – that is, initiatives spearheaded by a “coalition of the willing” at state and other levels. From the Just Transition Mechanism to the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, from cross‑regional alliances to new South–South coalitions, plurilateral initiatives are becoming the laboratories where climate ambition is tested — and sometimes achieved.

This can be good news. Small groups can innovate faster than 198 states. If „coalitions of the willing“ move ahead, there can be more agility, less paralysis, more innovation.

But there is a danger too: When decision‑making moves into smaller rooms, the loudest voices tend to be the strongest – and those weakest and with most at stake risk being left in the corridor. The shift to plurilateralism can easily become a shift away from democratic participation and democratic scrutiny.

Now is the time for civil society to step up
Civil society, communities and everyday citizens risk being spectators rather than co-creators of these processes. The shift to plurilateral processes means we cannot rely on “top-down” global decisions by national governments any longer.

And that is precisely why now is the time for civil society to step forward — not step back. At Talking Hope, we define hope as the decision to act into the unknown – especially when the outcomes appear ever more uncertain.

As climate negotiations move into pluralist spaces, we must mobilize, connect, engage — and bring in the voices often left out: especially communities who are marginalized, suffer from social disadvantages or do not have a powerful lobby to speak on their behalf.

Talking to each other is not a luxury. It’s a political act.
The climate crisis cannot be solved without strengthening social justice, democratic participation and our ability to understand each other across difference. This is not “soft” work. It is not secondary to climate policy. It “is” climate policy.

When citizens stop speaking across divides, fossil fuel interests thrive. When fear becomes louder than dialogue, justice shrinks. When politics moves to smaller tables, hope must move outward — into communities, cafés, buses, classrooms, public squares and living rooms.

As plurilateral climate action grows, so must our plural societies.

We need pressure — not polarisation.
Governments and businesses are entering a phase in which they can act faster, but also with less transparency. That means they will only move boldly if they feel sustained and informed human pressure — from unions, from students, from elders, from entrepreneurs, from faith groups, from neighbours, from each and every one of us.

Pressure does not even require shouting. Pressure is above all built through connection. It is built when we speak with those who disagree. When we ask, gently but firmly: “How do we actually want to live? What kind of future are we leaving behind for our children? Who gets to shape it? And who is being left out?”

Hope is not optimism. It is engagement.

Plurilateralism may accelerate progress, but justice will anchor it.
At COP30, one message echoed again and again from Indigenous leaders, youth movements and communities on the climate frontlines: “We cannot repair the planet without repairing our social contract.”

A sustainable future is not only about cleaner technologies — it is about fairer societies. It is about workers who are part of the transition, not casualties of it. It is about Indigenous rights being recognized in practice, not only in speeches. It is about global cooperation that includes, rather than sidelines, the communities who protect forests, water and land.

Plurilateralism may accelerate progress, but justice will anchor it.

This is equally true for our neighbourhoods and communities in Germany: for those, who are afraid of what the move away from fossil fuels will mean for their jobs, for those who stand at the sidelines of the energy transition because they simply cannot afford it, and for those who fear the transition because all they hear is what they “must do” rather than what sustainable living conditions will offer them.

Our call: Engage widely. Talk boldly. Shape together.
If COP30 showed us anything, it is that the window for a liveable future is still open. Narrowing, yes. But open. And whether it widens or closes now depends less on summit declarations than on what we do between them.

History has proven time and again: All groundbreaking social innovations – whether the end of slavery and apartheid, workers’ rights or women’s rights – have come through bottom-up pressure. Governments are never innovators; they react to such pressure – to public opinion and what they perceive as voter wishes.

So here is our invitation: This is how we can move forward and increase our handprint to effect change even in these difficult times.

1. Let’s break out of the bubble — and build real bridges.
   Let’s connect. Let’s listen. Let’s question. Real change begins when we step outside our comfort zones. Let’s talk to people who disagree, who hesitate, who see the world differently. Honest conversations travel farther than echo chambers ever will.
   
2. Let’s turn global goals into local action.
   Let’s act locally, yet with a view to the world. Big climate clubs and plurilateral initiatives only matter if people on the ground keep them honest and under pressure to deliver. Let’s mobilize in our communities, speak up at work, write to our representatives. Let’s ask them how they’re making the transition fair — and who’s being heard in the process.
   
3. Let’s make climate action about justice, power and inclusion.
   Let’s insist on inclusion, rights, democracy and fairness. Climate policy is not just science and emission targets — it’s about people. Who benefits? Who gets left out? A just transition only becomes real when citizens demand it.
   
4. Let’s not wait for heroes — but be the movement.
   The biggest societal shifts have always come from everyday people who decided “enough”. When many small Davids join forces, even the biggest Goliaths don’t stand a chance. Let’s be Davids.
   
5. Let’s watch the new institutions — and keep them honest.
   The future depends on us paying attention. As the climate arena shifts toward plurilateral clubs and coalitions, transparency and accountability have to keep up. Inclusion must stay non-negotiable. Let’s demand clear rules, open doors and real justice — not just glossy announcements. The future depends on us paying attention.

Toward a new social contract — sustainable, inclusive, shared
Let’s make space for dialogue and let’s build pressure together. Plurilateralism does not have to mean less democracy, yet it can mean a different kind of democracy. A sustainable future offers a chance not only to prevent planetary breakdown, but also to create a world that is stronger, fairer and shared by all. The world needs more of us talking now.